New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 14 Sep 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Liberty vs Mercury

The New York Liberty face the Phoenix Mercury in this WNBA matchup at PHX Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 05:00 on Monday 15 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

Oppose a High-Scoring Contest

Betting on the totals provides plenty of value at 1.91. The line is set at 163.5 and we’d be surprised if the Liberty and the Mercury’ combined points total exceeds that amount.

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Mercury 80-63 Winners in Most Recent H2H

New York Liberty got the win in their previous game. A 91-86 triumph occurred on the road at Wintrust Arena when playing Chicago Sky.

Phoenix Mercury suffered a defeat in their last game. A 97-76 scoreline occurred on the road at College Park Center against Dallas Wings.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last head-to-head saw the Mercury claim a 80-63 win over the Liberty at PHX Arena. The previous 10 H2H meetings have involved the Liberty winning six times.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L
5  Liberty	27	17	3713	3534	179	17-5	10-12	3W

View Full Standings

New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

The New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury betting tips feature sharp analysis across major markets, including a key match prediction, player prop bets, correct score guidance and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

The 1.91 about Under 163.5 points makes plenty of appeal. We’re not sure that the teams can combine to reach that number for this WNBA contest.

Our WNBA handicappers start by reviewing the latest team news for each franchise, followed by a close look at recent form. That information is then applied to the most relevant stats to reach a well-informed verdict.

Key Liberty vs Mercury stats:

• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Liberty games.
• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Liberty games.
• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Mercury games at home.
• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Mercury games at home.

Under 163.5 Probability

Based on the latest betting odds from the best basketball sportsbooks, our pick carries a 52.4% chance of winning. Our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

The bigger odds can be found if you combine your Under wager on the Totals with other picks in a Bet Builder. This is popular way of betting on multiple outcomes in a single game.

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Best Bet

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Player Prop Picks

Correct Score Prediction

Liberty 78 - 81 Mercury

We’re expecting this to be a close contest and we’ll take the Mercury to win 81-78. This is available at massive odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.

New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Game Could Go Right to the Wire According to the Books

The betting odds about Phoenix Mercury winning is 2.08, with New York Liberty priced up at 1.76 to achieve victory. From a percentage point-of-view, the leading WNBA sportsbooks give the visiting team a 57% chance of success.

There is a spread of 2 and total points has a line of 164.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you’re going for Under 164.5, this outcome can be backed at 1.91.

The top basketball sportsbooks offer a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to most matchups. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Breanna Stewart Favorite to Get Most Points

Breanna Stewart is the favorite to score most points. Odds of 1.81 can be found for her scoring Over 18.5 points and there is 1.96 for her to go Under.

Micro Betting

You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to basketball micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New York Liberty Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 148.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 158.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 156: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 156 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 73.90 pts and allowed 74.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 78.40 pts and allowed 79.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 159.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 155.00 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 156: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 156 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 81.30 pts and allowed 78.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 80.70 pts and allowed 74.30 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	34	10	3787	3373	414	20-2	14-8	1W
2  Aces	30	14	3680	3552	128	17-5	13-9	16W
3  Dream	30	14	3712	3378	334	16-6	14-8	6W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L
5  Liberty	27	17	3713	3534	179	17-5	10-12	3W
6  Fever	24	20	3734	3586	148	13-9	11-11	3W
7  Storm	23	21	3614	3524	90	10-12	13-9	1W
8  Valkyries	23	21	3420	3359	61	14-8	9-13	3L
9  Sparks	21	23	3769	3882	-113	9-13	12-10	1L
10  Mystics	16	28	3394	3589	-195	10-12	6-16	10L
11  Sun	11	33	3337	3782	-445	7-15	4-18	2L
12  Sky	10	34	3335	3777	-442	6-16	4-18	4L
13  Wings	10	34	3594	3871	-277	6-16	4-18	1W